Maoists could resort violence if the peace process stagnates: ICG

While Nepal’s Maoists have accepted multiparty democracy and have lost their appetite for all-out war, they could still resort to physical confrontation if the peace process stagnates, an international analysis group said.

Nepal’s Maoists: Purists or Pragmatists, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, states the Maoists’ internal debates and their transition to a more moderate strategy. Their entry into democratic politics – working alongside mainstream parties to force the king to relinquish power in April 2006 and joining a coalition government one year later – has brought them new influence and opportunities.

However, some Maoists fear they have traded in their principles and military power for little tangible advantage, the report states.

“Making the political process work is up to other actors as much as the Maoists”, the report quotes Rhoderick Chalmers, Deputy Director of Crisis Group’s South Asia Project as saying. “If the mainstream parties are committed to the peace agreement and keep their side of the bargain, Maoist leaders will find it much easier to persuade their followers that compromise is the best way forward”.

The report further states that the Maoists always said their campaign would adapt classical Marxism and Maoism to suit the context of Nepal. They now argue that they can carry out a “peaceful revolution” that is true to their aims but also reflects political realities. In this light, joining the parliamentary parties and pushing for a bourgeois “democratic republic” is just a stepping stone towards a true “people’s republic”. They hope to use the constituent assembly process to restructure the state, secure a dominant position within the multiparty system and move toward their ultimate goal.

The decision to join mainstream politics stemmed from an analysis of the Maoists’ own strategic weaknesses. They concluded that their belief in military victory had been misplaced, acknowledged that they had misread the likelihood of determined international opposition, and drew lessons from the failures that caused the collapse of many twentieth-century communist regimes.

The ICG report also states that the Maoists are slowly becoming a part of the establishment in parliament, where they are learning to play by the rules, even if they are not always ready to follow them; in government, where their ministers are fulfilling day-to-day duties while pushing the movement’s agenda; and in the international community, where they have won a degree of recognition.

Within the Maoist movement, however, critics of the peace deal are becoming more vocal. They accuse the mainstream parties of stalling on critical parts of the peace deal (such as security sector reform) and taking Maoist flexibility for weakness. “Threats of a new mass movement are part bluster but also reflect real pressure on Maoist leaders to deliver”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director.

“They have little to gain by reverting to violence – but the people of Nepal have plenty to lose”, the report adds.